In June of 2025, economic forecasts projected the Scottish economy to grow by 1.2%, outpacing the UK as a whole and other major European economies like France, Germany, and Italy. By July, experts adopted a more pessimistic outlook, with most forecasts hovering around 1%. What has changed since early 2025?
Donald Trump’s first round of tariffs in early April took the world by storm as he invoked his Presidential powers to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries as an attempt to boost local American manufacturing. The United Kingdom was no exception and was slapped with a 10% tax under the baseline rate. As the global economy steers towards protectionism and uncertainty, economic growth is projected to slow in most major European economies, including the UK and, naturally, the Scottish economy.
Beyond international trade tensions, increased central government spending plans by Westminster for 2025/26, notably due to planned increases in the defence budget, play a part in the waning economic confidence for Scotland in 2026.
The higher per capita funding baseline in Scotland, at £14759 compared to England’s £12639, is expected to take a hit, as the Barnett formula dictates how the allocation of central resources to devolved governments works in the UK, making space for defence spending.
This decrease in funds for the Scottish Government is also likely to have played a role in the weakened consumer confidence, which is expected to dent economic predictions for 2026 as the spending and aggregate demand of Scottish consumers is reduced. All in all, global trade uncertainty and fiscal constraints on top of an already fragile economy will have promoted a more sceptical economic outlook for Scotland.
This decrease in funds for the Scottish Government is also likely to have played a role in the weakened consumer confidence, which is expected to dent economic predictions for 2026 as the spending and aggregate demand of Scottish consumers is reduced.
Young people will bear the brunt of the increasingly stagnant economy. In 2026, projections estimate up to one million students vying for a spot in Scottish universities, a 27% increase from 2021 projections.
In a cooling economy, young people and students are disproportionately more likely to face hardships as they face neglect from the job market, which in consequence, negatively impacts their attitudes towards schooling and life outlook.
On top of the already broken employment system, the housing market is also bound to be difficult to navigate for students and young people. Some of these issues are part of the discussion for Scottish independence, as many argue that the Scottish economy is being held back by the union – particularly since Brexit – and many reputable economists accept that the Scottish economy is already well-placed, and would benefit from independence or increased devolution and self-determination. This would be similar to other small economies like Denmark, New Zealand or Finland, which have actually been among the best-performing economies regardless of their size.
Smaller economies tend to enjoy a more responsive government, high levels of trust and social cohesion, and can react faster to tackle aforementioned issues. That being said, not much can be done by smaller economies to cope with the turbulent state of the global economy. One may say the lack of influence of smaller economies will be played against them when it comes to trade wars.
Smaller economies tend to enjoy a more responsive government, high levels of trust and social cohesion, and can react faster to tackle aforementioned issues.
But when it comes to other issues like consumer confidence and fiscal liability, more Scottish autonomy will likely play a beneficial role, as we can see in countries like Finland, where issues like housing affordability are addressed efficiently, even for young people, through government housing programmes, which can be difficult without increased economic and political power in Scotland.
All things considered, the answer to this question of why the Scot economy is going to fall short isn’t a simple one; it’s complex and interconnected. So much can go wrong in today’s world – but a lot can also go right. Although this news is disappointing, it’s also a telling sign that Scotland should strive for better control of itself: because the country has so much potential, as a member of the union with increased sovereignty, or indeed, as a separate sovereign state.
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